Playing the numbers

Let's do the numbers.

Donald J. Trump won the Iowa Republican caucus going away, a landslide victory, 98 of the 99 counties, amassing a vote total that smashed records. No one had won a Presidential caucus in Iowa by 30 points. He took home 30 delegates by winning 51% of the vote. Nothing like it, ever.

[For the record, Trump won Sioux County, where I live, with 45% of the total; DeSantis had 31%--and quit the race; others, including Nikki Haley, only notched 24%.] 

In New Hampshire, a conservative state with a populace notably without the thousands of evangelicals in Iowa, once again Trump won, this time over a field significantly diminished, taking home 36,000 votes more than Nikki Haley, the only real opposition candidate left standing. To be noted: more votes were cast in the New Hampshire Presidential Primary--318,000--than the earlier record set in the 2020 Democratic Primary-- 288,000. 

In Iowa, Trump won despite losing the backing of two significant Republicans, Governor Kim Reynolds, as well as Bob Vander Plaats, generally assumed to be the voice of the Iowa's Christian Republicans. In New Hampshire, the highly popular John Sununu campaigned hard for Nikki Haley.

No matter. Trump took home all the bacon.

In South Carolina, a state widely perceived as far to the right of either New Hampshire or Iowa, Trump crushed his former Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, taking home all the delegates and winning 60% of the total vote. All this despite the fact that Ms. Haley had been the state's own highly popular, two-termed governor.

For anyone who has watched anything surrounding American politics, Donald J. Trump, the twice-impeached ex-President, swimming in upcoming court dates, a man who now bills himself as a martyr to the MAGA cause--whatever that is--seems the inevitable Republican candidate, although he's no more "Republican" than I am. The numbers don't lie. He will be the MAGA candidate.,

But, if you believe the newscasters I listen to, the numbers don't lie about other things either. There was swirling snow and cold the night of the Iowa Caucuses after all, and maybe tons of people didn't show up because they knew the outcome of the whole affair before it even began. On the other hand, maybe scads of people didn't show up because they weren't at all interested or thrilled. One way or another, here in Iowa, only 15% of the registered Republicans caucused that night--15%.

Thusly, let me (and my leftie friends) spin the numbers. In Iowa, Donald J. Trump won the caucus hands down, but he did so with only 51% of the 15% Republican voters. Hmmmmm. Do I smell a weakness? In New Hampshire, 43% of the Republicans in the state who voted didn't vote for him. 

It's the fuel Nikki Haley is running on--with some significant financial backing too, of course. But it's the only faith we Dems have to hold on to right now amid Trump's blowouts, and MSNBC is full of that kind of talk--that even though blitzkrieging Trump is rolling over whatever opposition attempts to break his hold, there's more to the numbers than meets the eye.

It's all we've got right now. But then everything changes if the two candidates that seem destined to be America's choice in November, aren't. Could that happen? You bet. 

Somewhere in the area of 65% of the American populace would vote for Bullwinkle rather than the Orange Man, whether or not he was behind bars. The true-blue MAGAS make a ton of noise, but they're a shrinking percentage of the American people. 

Numbers don't lie, but they can be spun. 

Keep the faith!!